双语 | 中美贸易战看不懂?这些背景要知道

来源:译世界 作者: Yee君 时间:2018/03/28


据新华社消息,北京时间3月23日凌晨(美国当地时间22日中午),美国总统特朗普签署总统备忘录,将对从中国进口的商品大规模加征关税,并限制中国企业对美投资并购。特朗普在白宫签字前对媒体说,涉及征税的中国商品规模可达600亿美元。


这一举动不仅使全球大范围股市大跌,更是遭到了国内外商界人士的极力反对,而中美更是有可能会触发贸易战。那么,这个备忘录的签署为什么会引起社会各界的强烈反响?什么是“301调查”?贸易战对中美将会产生哪些影响?各方如何表态?快随Yee君来一一get√


Amid strong warnings from business groups, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a memorandum that could impose tariffs on up to 60 billion U.S. dollars of Chinese products, fueling fears that the world's two largest economies could be sliding towards a trade war.

美国总统特朗普不顾商界团体的强烈警告,签署了总统备忘录,可能对高达600亿美元的中国产品征收关税。此举不禁让人担心,全球最大的两个经济体可能导向贸易战。



In the memorandum, based on a so-called Section 301 investigation into alleged Chinese intellectual property and technology transfer practices, Trump has directed U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to publish a list of proposed Chinese goods that could be subject to tariffs in 15 days. For the U.S. Treasury Department, it has 60 days to make recommendations on restrictions on Chinese investments.

该备忘录依据的是所谓的“301调查”结果,该调查对中国知识产权保护和技术转让等方面提出了诸多指控。根据备忘录,特朗普指派美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽在15天内宣布将被提高关税的产品清单,而美国财政部则将在60天内制定新的投资限制条款,用于限制中国投资购买美国公司技术。


Also, Washington is pressing China to reduce its 375-billion-dollar trade surplus with the United States by 100 billion dollars.

此外,美国正敦促中国将中美贸易顺差减少1000亿美元。


China announced Friday a plan for reciprocal tariffs on imported U.S. products worth about 3 billion dollars to balance losses caused by the U.S. metal restrictions against China.

23日,中国宣布将对美国进口的30亿美元产品征收互惠关税,以平衡因美国对中国的金属产品限制对中方利益造成的损失。


The measures, or the suspension of tariff concessions, will target 128 U.S. products, including pork, wine, and seamless steel tubes.

这些措施或是中止减让关税的产品针对猪肉、葡萄酒、无缝钢管等128种美国产品。


何谓“301调查”?


Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974, authorizes the President to take all appropriate action, including retaliation, to obtain the removal of any act, policy, or practice of a foreign government that violates an international trade agreement or is unjustified, unreasonable, or discriminatory, and that burdens or restricts U.S. commerce.

美国《1974年贸易法》第301条款授权美国总统采取报复等一切适当措施,对外国政府立法、行政或行动中违反国际交易协议,或不公正、不合理、差别对待以及阻碍或限制美国贸易的行为进行制裁。


“301条款”是美国政府针对损害美国贸易利益和商业利益的外国政府的行为、政策和做法进行调查、报复和制裁的手段,其本质是美国强权政治和单边主义做法在外贸领域的体现,利用贸易政策推行其价值观念的一种手段,即通过强化美国对外贸易协定的实施,扩大美国海外市场,迫使其他国家接受美国的国际贸易准则,以维护美国的利益。


不过,对此,中国前驻旧金山、纽约总领馆经济商务参赞何伟文表示,“301调查”的根据是美国1974年的贸易法,这是美国国内法。在WTO成立之后,其已经不再适用,将此拿到中国头上是违反国际规则的。对外经济贸易大学教授屠新泉也表示,“调查结果可以诉诸WTO裁决,但不能单方面采取制裁措施。如果美国没有通过WTO来解决问题,就是单边主义的贸易保护主义行为,是违反WTO原则的。”


过去5次“301调查”指向同一结果


实际上,此次已是美国第六次针对中国的“301调查”,而回看历史可以发现,前5次最终结果都一样。


华夏研报称,历史上美国曾5次对华发起301调查,从结果看,最终双方均达成妥协,并未演化成全面贸易战。301条款更多是美国获取谈判优势的手段。



另一个让美国略显尴尬的现实是,历次301调查期间,中国对美贸易增速反而更高。


兴业研究去年发布的报告称,以1991年4月到1992年10月为例,我们分别计算调查期间前后18个月的增速平均值发现:在中国遭受“301调查”期间,美国自中国进口平均增速为34%,同时高于调查前18个月的平均增速29%及调查后18个月增速23%,而美国自其他经济体进口增速也未有显著变化。


再以1994年6月至1995年2月为例,在中国遭受“301调查”期间,美国自中国进口平均增速为24%,分别高于调查前10个月的20%及调查后的18%。由此,从数据上观察,中国在遭受“301调查”期间,均出现对美出口不降反升的现象。


报告分析称,受制于企业备货与出口计划调整的时滞效应影响,短期“301调查”对中国出口并无显著影响;但较为长期的“301调查”或导致企业因“制裁恐惧”而提前出口,反而推高了数据。


另一方面,“301调查”对于美国增加向中国出口却起不到什么明显作用。其中,90年代前两次的连续调查期间,美国对中国出口增速由此前-7%跳增至28%,随后回落至19%。第三次调查期间,美国对华出口增速由前期19%下滑至9%,随后上升至30%。数字的变化主要取决于中国的应对策略。


中美贸易战会产生什么影响?


Lacking a high domestic savings rate and wanting to consume and grow, America must import surplus savings from abroad while running massive current-account and trade deficits to attract foreign capital, Stephen Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, said in an interview with Xinhua.

耶鲁大学杰克逊全球事务学院高级研究员史蒂芬•罗奇在接受新华网采访时表示,由于国内储蓄率低,为了促进消费和增长,美国必须从国外进口多余储蓄,同时还要管理大量往来账户和贸易逆差,以吸引外国投资。


Trade problems can only be solved by boosting domestic savings instead of imposing tariffs, he explained.

他解释道,贸易问题只能通过提高国内储蓄来解决,而不是加税。


The downward move will harm the U.S. economy as American consumers will have to pay higher prices for goods, warned Fredrik Erixon, director of the Brussels-based think tank, the European Center for International Political Economy.

欧洲国际政治经济研究中心是位于布鲁塞尔的一家智库,该中心主任弗雷德里克•埃里克森警示道,这种逆势之举将损害美国经济,因为美国消费者不得不为商品支付更多的钱。


Erixon was echoed by senior Vice President of Nike Sean O'Hollaren, who said at a reception hosted at the Chinese Consulate General in San Francisco that "the U.S.-China trade is not a zero sum game, and what China gained does not mean the loss of the United States."

耐克副总裁肖恩•奥霍拉兰赞同埃里克森的看法,他在位于旧金山的中国总领事馆举办的一场招待会上表示,中美贸易并非零和博弈,中国有所得并不意味着美国有所失。


Fears of a trade war shook the global stock and currency markets after Trump's announcement, with the benchmark S&P 500 Index slumping the most since early February and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping nearly 3 percent on Thursday.

在特朗普这一政策宣布后,由贸易战带来的恐慌冲击了全球股市和货币市场,标准普尔500指数自2月初以来跌幅最大,道琼斯工业平均指数周四下跌近3%。


Meanwhile in Asia, Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index on Friday plunged 4.5 percent to 20,671.11 and South Korea's Kospi tumbled 3.1 percent. Both China's Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong's Hang Seng have lost over 3 percent. Benchmarks in Southeast Asia and Australia also fell.

而在亚洲,日本日经225指数周五下跌4.5%,至20671.11点,韩国综合股价指数下跌3.1%。中国的上证综合指数和香港的恒生指数都下跌了3%以上。东南亚和澳大利亚股市的基准指数也出现下跌。


It has heightened concerns that widespread trade battles could severely undermine the multilateral trading system and destabilize the global economy that has just recovered from a financial crisis starting a decade ago.

此举加剧了人们对于大范围贸易战可能会严重破坏多边贸易体系、动摇全球经济的担心,而全球经济刚刚从十年前爆发的金融危机中恢复过来。


美国学者:贸易战的胜利者将是中国


In a letter to Trump on Sunday, 45 U.S. trade associations, representing retail, technology, agriculture and other consumer-product industries, urged the administration not to move forward its tariff plan on Chinese imports, as it would hurt U.S. consumers and companies.

代表零售、科技、农业和其他消费品行业的45个美国商业协会在18日联名写信给特朗普,敦促政府停止对中国进口商品大规模征收关税的计划,因为此举将损害美国消费者和各大公司的利益。


A group of 25 major U.S. retail companies, including Walmart, Costco and Best Buy, also warned on Monday that any additional broad-based tariff would worsen U.S. inequity and "punish American working families" with higher prices on household basics like clothing, shoes and electronics.

19日,包括沃尔玛、科思科、百思买等25家美国零售业巨头也警告说,大规模征收额外关税会加剧美国的社会不平等,服装、鞋子、家电等日用品价格的上升无疑是“对美国工薪家庭的惩罚”。


CNN Money文章分析称,特朗普此举对美国消费者无益:


Americans buy lots of Chinese-made goods. Prices will likely go up for shoppers.

美国人购买大量中国制造的商品,对于消费者来说,这些商品恐怕将涨价了。


So there's a lot at stake, from Wall Street to your local Walmart.

所以现在,从华尔街到你家当地的沃尔玛,方方面面都处于危机之中。


美国《纽约时报》日前刊登诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)文章,指责特朗普团队夸大美中贸易逆差,对世界贸易一无所知:


Mr. Trump’s trade policy is quickly turning into an object lesson in the wages of ignorance. By refusing to do its homework, the Trump team is managing to lose friends while failing to influence people.

特朗普贸易政策展现出的无知,很快将演变成一次沉痛教训。由于拒绝做好准备工作,特朗普团队正在失去他们的盟友,而且不会给美国人民带来好处。


The truth is that trade wars are bad, and almost everyone ends up losing economically. If anyone “wins,” it will be nations that gain geopolitical influence because America is squandering its own reputation. And that means that to the extent that anyone emerges as a victor from the Trump trade war, it will be … China.

事实上,贸易战有百害而无一利,几乎所有人都会蒙受经济损失。如果存在“赢家”,将会是那些在地缘政治上获得影响力的国家,因为美国在挥霍自己的声誉。这意味着,特朗普贸易战的胜利者将是……中国。


中方回应


国务院副总理刘鹤:中方已经做好准备,有实力捍卫国家利益


Chinese Vice Premier Liu He had a phone conversation with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Saturday morning, urging concerted efforts to maintain the stability of China-US trade ties.

3月24日上午,国务院副总理刘鹤与美国财政部长姆努钦通话,呼吁双方共同努力,维护中美经贸关系总体稳定的大局。


During their conversation, Mnuchin briefed the Chinese side on the latest development of Section 301 investigation report released by the US side.   

通话中,姆努钦向中方通报了美方公布301调查报告最新情况。


Liu said the Section 301 investigation report "violates international trade rules and is beneficial to neither Chinese interests, U.S. interests nor global interests", Xinhua cited him as saying.

新华社援引刘鹤的话说,301调查报告“违背国际贸易规则,不利于中方利益,不利于美方利益,不利于全球利益。”


"China has already prepared, and has the strength, to defend its national interests," Liu said, adding that China hopes both sides can work hard to protect generally stable China-US trade and business relations.

刘鹤表示,“中方已经做好准备,有实力捍卫国家利益,”并表示,希望双方共同努力,维护中美经贸关系总体稳定的大局。


中国驻美大使崔天凯:我们一定会奉陪,看谁能坚持得更久



3月23日,中国驻美大使馆就所谓的“301调查”结果发布声明,称这是典型的单边贸易保护主义做法,中方对此强烈不满、坚决反对。


声明指出:


China does not want a trade war with anyone. But China is not afraid of and will not recoil from a trade war. China is confident and capable of facing any challenge. If a trade war were initiated by the U.S., China would fight to the end to defend its own legitimate interests with all necessary measures.

中方不希望打贸易战,但绝不惧怕贸易战,有信心、有能力应对任何挑战。如果美方执意要打,我们将奉陪到底,并采取所有必要措施坚决捍卫自身合法权益。


针对美国这一举动,中国驻美大使崔天凯表示:


We will do whatever we can to defend the legitimate interests.

我们会竭尽全力保护自身的合法利益。


We will certainly fight back. We will retaliate. If people want to play tough, we will play tough with them and see who will last longer.

我们一定会反击的,会进行报复的。如果有人想来硬的,我们一定会奉陪,看谁能坚持得更久。


外交部回应:我们一不会怕,二不会躲


此前,外交部发言人华春莹曾多次对中美贸易战做出回应。


3月21日,华春莹在例行记者会上表示,“但如果有人非逼迫我们打,我们一不会怕,二不会躲。”


We want no trade war with anyone, but if our hands are forced, we will not quail nor recoil from it.

中方不想跟任何人打贸易战,但如果有人非逼迫我们打,我们一不会怕,二不会躲。


3月23日,中国外交部发言人华春莹在例行记者会上回应称,希望通过建设性对话和协商妥善解决有关问题,这符合中美双方的共同利益。如果美方一意孤行,中方一定会奉陪到底。


The US has acted in disregard of China's strengthened protection for intellectual property rights, the WTO rules and the call of the business community. This is a typical act of unilateralism and trade protectionism and the Chinese side strongly opposes it. Such action does not serve the interests of China, the US and the world at large and sets a very bad example. Under no circumstances will China sit idly and allow its legitimate rights and interests to be undermined. We are fully prepared to firmly defend our legitimate interests.

美方无视中方加强知识产权保护的事实,无视世贸组织规则,无视广大业界的呼声,一意孤行,这是典型的单边主义和贸易保护主义,中方坚决反对。美方此举不利于中国利益,不利于美方利益,不利于全球利益,开了一个非常恶劣的先例。任何情况下,中方都不会坐视自身合法权益受到损害,我们已经做好充分准备,坚决捍卫自身合法利益。


As to the Section 301 investigation, China has made clear its stance on many occasions. We do not hope to have a trade war with anyone, but we are never afraid of it. We have the confidence and capability to cope with any challenge. We hope the US will make cautious decisions and avoid placing China-US trade relations in danger.

关于301调查,中方已经多次明确表明立场,中方不希望打贸易战,但绝不害怕贸易战,我们有信心、有能力应对任何挑战。希望美方慎重决策,不要把双边经贸关系拖入险境。


商务部回应:合作是两国唯一正确的选择


针对美国301调查决定,商务部新闻发言人表示,美方此举不利于中方利益,不利于美方利益,不利于全球利益,开了一个非常恶劣的先例。


China will absolutely not sit back watching its rights and interests be damaged. China will take all necessary measures to resolutely protect its legitimate rights and interests.

任何情况下,中方都不会坐视自身合法权益受到损害,我们已做好充分准备,坚决捍卫自身合法利益。


3月23日,商务部发布了针对美国进口钢铁和铝产品232措施的中止减让产品清单并征求公众意见,拟对自美进口部分产品加征关税,以平衡因美国对进口钢铁和铝产品加征关税给中方利益造成的损失(China plans tariffs on some US imports to offset loss on steel and aluminum products)


According to the ministry, these proposed tariffs involve 128 products China imports from the United States, with a value of $3 billion.

该清单暂定包含7类、128个税项产品,按2017年统计,涉及美对华约30亿美元出口。


Among the figure, 120 products worth a total of $977 million and including fresh fruits, nuts, wine and seamless steel pipes, they would be hit with a 15 percent tariff increase, while a possible 25 percent tariff would be imposed on eight other products with a worth of $1.992 billion, including pork, pork products and recycled aluminium.

清单共分两部分,第一部分共计120个税项,涉及美对华9.77亿美元出口,包括鲜水果、干果及坚果制品、葡萄酒、改性乙醇、花旗参、无缝钢管等产品,拟加征15%的关税。第二部分共计8个税项,涉及美对华19.92亿美元出口,包括猪肉及制品、回收铝等产品,拟加征25%的关税。


商务部发言人表示,美国以“国家安全”为由限制产品进口的做法,严重破坏以世贸组织为代表的多边贸易体系,严重干扰正常的国际贸易秩序,已遭到多个世贸组织成员的反对。中方也通过多层次、多渠道与美方进行了交涉,将在世贸组织框架下采取法律行动,与其他世贸组织成员共同维护多边贸易规则的稳定和权威。


商务部发言人强调,中美作为世界前两大经济体,合作是两国唯一正确的选择,希望双方从中美大局出发,相向而行,聚焦合作,管控分歧,共同促进中美经贸关系健康稳定发展。


中方敦促美方尽快解决中方的关切,通过对话协商解决双方的分歧,避免对中美合作大局造成损害。


WTO态度


WTO:新的贸易壁垒会危害全球经济


对于特朗普此举,世界贸易组织(WTO)总干事罗伯特·阿泽维多(Roberto Azevêdo)也警示道,新的贸易壁垒会危害全球经济(new trade barriers would "jeopardise the global economy")


他在一份声明中呼吁双方保持克制,尽快进行对话(call for “restraint and urgent dialogue”),并指出:


Disrupting trade flows will jeopardise the global economy at a time when economic recovery, though fragile, has been increasingly evident around the world. 

虽然经济依然脆弱,但处于恢复时期,此时打乱贸易流量会对全球经济造成危害。


I encourage members to continue working through the WTO’s many forums and mechanisms to deal with their concerns and explore potential solutions.

我支持成员国继续通过世贸组织的众多论坛和机制进行合作,应对各方关切,寻找可能的解决方案。


Actions taken outside these collective processes greatly increase the risk of escalation in a confrontation that will have no winners, and which could quickly lead to a less stable trading system.

在这些集体进程之外所采取的措施大大增加了风险上升的风险,结果将导致双方皆输,并可能会很快造成贸易体系更加不稳定。


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